Method for Uncertainty and Probability Estimation of Avoided Impacts from Information and Communication Technology Solutions
 |
International Journal of Recent Engineering Science (IJRES) |  |
| © 2024 by IJRES Journal | ||
| Volume-11 Issue-5 |
||
| Year of Publication : 2024 | ||
| Authors : Anders S.G. Andrae |
||
| DOI : 10.14445/23497157/IJRES-V11I5P110 |
How to Cite?
Anders S.G. Andrae, "Method for Uncertainty and Probability Estimation of Avoided Impacts from Information and Communication Technology Solutions," International Journal of Recent Engineering Science, vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 103-108, 2024. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/23497157/IJRES-V11I5P110
Abstract
Solutions provided by Information and Communication Technology (ICT) may help avoid environmental impacts. Several methodologies exist by which the avoided impact can be estimated. However, so far there is a lack of treatment of the uncertainty within the calculations. Especially the uncertainty range of the rebound effects compared to others is not part of existing methods. As such, there is no way of knowing how large the errors can be - for different elements of the equation for avoided impacts - while still being able to draw conclusions regarding the benefit of the ICT Solution. Here is presented a complete method for simplified assessment of ICT Solutions avoided impact potential including uncertainty and probability calculations. An example of gas pipe inspection, using either manual inspection or 5G drone inspection, is shown, which demonstrates the usefulness and efficiency of the proposed method. When the relative rebound effect is 55%, the target technology for pipe inspection is shown to avoid impact compared to the reference technology for gas pipe inspection. Sensitivity factors much larger than 1 for impacts related to the use of vehicles are shown to overestimate contributions to the total uncertainty. It should be explored how emerging standards will affect the practice in the area of avoided impact calculations.
Keywords
Avoided environmental impact, ICT solutions, Life cycle assessment, Probability, Uncertainty.
Reference
[1] Jan C.T. Bieser, and Lorenz M. Hilty, “Assessing Indirect Environmental Effects of Information and Communication Technology (ICT): A Systematic Literature Review,” Sustainability, vol. 10, no. 8, pp. 1-19, 2018.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[2] Anders S.G. Andrae, “Method for Calculating the Avoided Impact of Specific Information and Communication Technology Services," International Journal of Environmental Engineering and Development, vol. 2, pp. 73-87, 2024.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[3] F. Chionchio et al., “Estimation of GHG Avoided Emissions: A Way to Quantify How Energy Transition is Enabled,” SPE International Conference and Exhibition on Health, Safety, Environment, and Sustainability, Abu Dhabi, UAE, 2024.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[4] Reinout Heijungs, “A Generic Method for the Identification of Options for Cleaner Products,” Ecological Economics, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 69-81, 1994.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[5] Wei Zhe Lu, “Study on the Advanced Technique of Environmental Assessment Based on Life Cycle Assessment Using Matrix Method,” Ph.D. Thesis, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 2006.
[Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[6] Reinout Heijungs, Probability, Statistics and Life Cycle Assessment: Guidance for Dealing with Uncertainty and Sensitivity, 1st ed., Springer International Publishing, pp. 1-1144, 2024.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[7] César Morcillo Serra et al., “Impact on the Reduction of CO2 Emissions Due to the Use of Telemedicine,” Scientific Reports, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 1-6, 2022.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[8] David Font Vivanco et al., “Rebound Effect and Sustainability Science: A Review,” Journal of Industrial Ecology, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 1543-1563, 2022.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[9] Steven Nadel, “The Potential for Additional Energy Efficiency Savings Including How the Rebound Effect Could Affect this Potential,” Current Sustainable/Renewable Energy Reports, vol. 3, pp. 35-41, 2016.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[10] Xiaobo Chen, and Jacquetta Lee, “The Identification and Selection of Good Quality Data Using Pedigree Matrix,” Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Sustainable Design and Manufacturing (KES-SDM 2020), pp. 13-25, 2020.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[11] Diego Galar, Uday Kumar, and Dammika Seneviratne, Robots, Drones, UAVs and UGVs for Operation and Maintenance, 1st ed., CRC Press, 2020.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[12] Sadik Jadir Al-Jadir, “The Use of 5G Technologies in the Digital Transformation of the Oil/Gas Industry,” Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, Abu Dhabi, UAE, 2021.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]
[13] Anna Young-Ferris et al., “Making Things (That Don’t Exist) Count: A Study of Scope 4 Emissions Accounting Claims,” Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, 2024.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] [Publisher Link]